Trump Approval Falls to 41% as Voters Fault Him on Economy

President Donald Trump's approval rating among registered voters has dropped to 41%, a second-term low, according to a new NBC News poll. A majority of respondents, 55%, said Trump's policies have hurt the economy, a figure up from 48% when the same poll was taken in March.

What does the new NBC poll show about Trump's approval rating?

The survey, conducted jointly by Republican pollster Bill McInturff's Public Opinion Strategies and Democratic firm Hart Research Associates, puts Trump's approval at its lowest mark of his second term. McInturff told NBC News the numbers reflect a "classic battle" between voter sentiment and the political map Republicans and Democrats will actually fight over in November.

Why do voters say the economy has gotten worse under Trump?

The jump in negative economic ratings, from 48% to 55% since March, coincides with the war in Iran, which the poll's reporting says pushed up prices on gas and other goods. More than 6 in 10 voters told pollsters the Iran war has not been worth it, according to NBC News. Cost of living has emerged as voters' most pressing concern, and the poll found that Republicans' longtime double-digit advantage over Democrats on handling inflation and the economy has disappeared.

How does this compare with Trump's first midterm in 2018?

Democrats currently hold a 5-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 45%, according to the poll. That gap is narrower than the 12-point Democratic advantage recorded at the same point before the 2018 midterms, when the party won control of the House in Trump's first term. The comparison suggests a less favorable environment for Democrats this cycle than the one that produced their 2018 wave, even as Trump's approval sits at a similarly low level.

Could Democrats still lose control of Congress despite their poll lead?

Yes. The poll found the Democratic Party remains more unpopular than Trump and the Republican Party. That unpopularity, combined with the map, gives the GOP a structural buffer even as its standing with voters erodes.

What geographic factors favor Republicans this cycle?

Control of the House and, in particular, the Senate will be decided largely in traditionally Republican territory, according to NBC News. Democrats would need to flip multiple states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win a Senate majority, a steep climb regardless of national approval numbers. McInturff's framing — that Republicans are "still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost" — captures the disconnect between national sentiment and the seat-by-seat math both parties are working from heading into November.

By the numbers

• 41%: Trump's approval rating among registered voters, a second-term low
• 55%: Share of voters who say Trump's policies have hurt the economy, up from 48% in March
• 50%-45%: Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot, versus a 12-point lead at the same point in 2018