NBC5/Telemundo Poll: Talarico Edges Paxton, Abbott Leads Hinojosa

A new poll out of Texas shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%, according to an NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group survey released Sept. 21. That gap sits inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the race is a statistical toss-up with roughly seven weeks until Election Day, according to NBC News.

In the governor's race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 41%, a wider spread that is also technically within the margin of error. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

Who was surveyed and when?

Mason-Dixon interviewed 625 likely Texas voters by live telephone call from Sept. 8-10 for the statewide numbers, NBC News reported. A separate sample of 401 Hispanic likely voters was interviewed Sept. 8-12, carrying a wider margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. Both surveys landed as Republican-aligned groups began pouring tens of millions of dollars into television and digital ads across the state, according to the report.

What is happening with Hispanic voters?

The poll's most notable shift shows up among Latino voters. Both Talarico and Hinojosa lead with Hispanic likely voters by double digits — Talarico by 18 points (54% to 36%) and Hinojosa by 13 points (52% to 39%), per NBC News. That marks a reversal from 2024, when President Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, according to NBC News exit polling cited in the report.

NBC News said economic issues and immigration are the factors driving voter decisions this cycle, based on the survey results.

Why does the Hispanic vote matter so much in Texas?

Hispanic voters make up about a third of the Texas electorate, according to NBC News. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas in three decades, and past campaigns have used Hispanic turnout and vote share as a benchmark for competitiveness.

Hinojosa laid out her own target at a UnidosUS conference in August, pointing to Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate run against Ted Cruz as the closest a Democrat has come to flipping the state in recent history.

"To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O'Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote. When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win." — Gina Hinojosa, Democratic candidate for Texas governor, UnidosUS conference, August 2026

The new poll puts Hinojosa at 52% among Hispanic voters — short of the 64% mark she named as her own threshold for victory. Talarico's 54% among the same group is likewise below that benchmark.

What do the numbers mean for November?

For the Senate race, the poll leaves 8% of likely voters undecided, according to NBC News, a chunk large enough to swing the outcome either direction given the tight 3-point spread between Talarico and Paxton. That undecided bloc, combined with the incoming wave of Republican ad spending the report flagged, suggests the race could tighten or widen before Election Day.

In the governor's race, Abbott's 7-point edge over Hinojosa gives him more cushion, though NBC News notes that lead also technically falls inside the poll's margin of error given the sample size.

By the Numbers

• Senate race: Talarico 46% — Paxton 43% (margin of error: ±4 points; 8% undecided)
• Governor's race: Abbott 48% — Hinojosa 41%
• Hispanic voters, Senate: Talarico 54% — Paxton 36% (18-point lead)
• Hispanic voters, governor: Hinojosa 52% — Paxton 39% (13-point lead)
• 2024 comparison: Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, per NBC News exit polling
• Sample sizes: 625 likely voters statewide (Sept. 8-10); 401 Hispanic likely voters (Sept. 8-12, ±5 points)
• Pollster: Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

The full survey and methodology are detailed in the original NBC News report.

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