US Solar Generation Growth Slows to 22% Amid Rising Demand

Solar power generation in the United States grew 22 percent over the past year through the first seven months of 2026, down from growth rates that regularly topped 30 percent in prior quarters, according to grid data reported by Ars Technica on Sept. 25, 2026.

How much did US electricity demand grow in 2026?

Electricity demand rose about 2 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the data cited by Ars Technica. That is a slowdown from the prior year, when demand over the same seven-month stretch had climbed 3 percent year over year. The outlet attributed part of the increase in demand to data centers and to electrification trends such as electric vehicles and heat pumps drawing more power onto the grid, while noting that continued efficiency gains — and some data centers generating their own power off-grid — may be tempering the overall number.

Why is solar's growth rate cooling off?

Solar generated 39 terawatt-hours more in the first seven months of 2026 than it had in the same period the year before, down from an increase of 48 terawatt-hours the prior year, per the report. That works out to 22 percent growth, still outpacing overall demand but a marked drop from the sector's earlier trajectory. "The astonishing growth rates we've been seeing — over 30 percent year over year in many quarters — would inevitably come to an end as the ever-larger installed base would cause an identical increase to register as a smaller percentage change," Ars Technica's John Timmer wrote. Small-scale solar, including rooftop systems, grew more slowly but still increased more than 12 percent year over year, and combined utility-scale and small-scale solar produced 72 percent as much electricity as coal, the report said.

What's driving the slowdown in federal policy?

The deceleration comes as the federal government has removed incentives for renewable energy, a stance Ars Technica described as hostile to the sector's expansion. Despite that posture, the outlet reported that coal generation is down and renewables are up — a result it characterized as running counter to the administration's stated aims. Natural gas remains the dominant source on the US grid, though solar and wind have continued closing the gap with coal.

Where does offshore wind fit into the picture?

The largest offshore wind farm in the country is set to come online this year, according to the report, even as the broader outlook for offshore wind in the US remains uncertain amid the same policy headwinds affecting solar. Ars Technica did not specify the project's capacity or exact commissioning date beyond noting it is expected in 2026.

What to watch

• Whether solar's growth rate stabilizes further below 20 percent as the installed base keeps expanding.
• Coal's continued decline relative to combined solar and wind output.
• The commissioning timeline for the largest US offshore wind farm.
• Whether electricity demand growth accelerates if data-center construction outpaces on-site generation.

For the full data and analysis, see the original Ars Technica report.