48% of California Voters Back Billionaire Tax, Poll Finds

A plurality of likely California voters support a November ballot measure that would impose a one-time wealth tax on the state's richest residents, according to a new NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll released Wednesday, but the proposal has not yet reached majority support.

The poll found 48% of likely voters would vote "yes" on the measure, while 38% said they would vote "no" and 14% remained undecided, according to NBC News. The 10-point gap between support and opposition falls outside the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side's support level, NBC News reported. The survey was conducted Sept. 21-24.

What would Proposition 40 actually tax?

The measure, which will appear on the November ballot as Proposition 40, would implement a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, according to NBC News. A smaller tax would apply to individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone who lived in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026, meaning residents who leave California before the measure takes effect would not escape the levy based on current residence alone.

Supporters of the plurality-backed measure have cast it as a response to concentrated wealth; opponents have not been quoted in the polling data released so far, and the survey did not include campaign statements from either side.

How close is the race, according to the poll?

The topline numbers — 48% yes, 38% no, 14% undecided — describe a race where "yes" holds a clear but not commanding lead. A measure needs a majority of votes cast to pass, and with 14% of likely voters still undecided, the outcome remains unresolved five weeks before Election Day. The undecided share is large enough that either side could plausibly reach or fall short of 50% depending on how those voters break.

Does support hold among Hispanic voters?

A companion survey of Hispanic likely voters in California found a nearly identical pattern: 50% said they would vote "yes," 40% said "no" and 10% were undecided, according to NBC News. The similarity between the overall electorate and the Hispanic subsample suggests support for the measure is not concentrated in a single demographic bloc, though the poll did not break out results by other groups such as age, income or region.

What happens to the money if it passes?

Under the measure's terms, the state would be required to spend 90% of the new revenue on healthcare, NBC News reported. The remaining 10% would be split between education and food assistance programs. The ballot text does not specify a total dollar figure the tax is projected to raise, and none was included in the polling release.

What's the national context behind the measure?

The California vote arrives amid broader national attention to wealth inequality and taxation of the ultra-rich heading into the 2026 midterms. In an earlier national NBC News poll, raising taxes on billionaires ranked as the most popular candidate attribute among 15 traits tested, according to NBC News. Progressive candidates who have campaigned on higher billionaire taxes have had success in races around the country this cycle, NBC News reported, though efforts to raise taxes on the wealthy have not uniformly succeeded once in office. In New York City, a judge has paused Mayor Zohran Mamdani's push to tax high-value second homes, citing legal issues, according to the same NBC News report.

Poll at a glance

• Proposition 40 support: 48% yes, 38% no, 14% undecided (margin of error ±4 points)
• Hispanic likely voters: 50% yes, 40% no, 10% undecided
• Survey dates: Sept. 21-24
• Asset threshold: one-time 5% tax on net worths above $1.1 billion; smaller tax for $1 billion-$1.1 billion range
• Revenue split: 90% to healthcare, 10% split between education and food assistance

What to watch

• Whether the 14% undecided bloc breaks toward "yes" or "no" as Election Day nears
• Campaign spending and messaging from billionaire-affiliated opposition groups, if any emerge publicly
• Whether other California polls show a similar spread or diverge from the NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo findings
• Legal challenges, given the retroactive Jan. 1, 2026 residency trigger
• How the measure's healthcare-spending mandate is received by voters focused on state budget priorities

The full ballot measure will go before California voters in November alongside other statewide contests, with the wealth-tax question likely to draw continued polling attention given the size of the potential revenue stream and its focus on a narrow band of ultra-wealthy residents.