64% Odds: Brewers Favored Over Padres as MLB Division Series Sets

The Milwaukee Brewers win 64% of simulations run by ESPN heading into the National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres, according to the outlet's first-look preview published Oct. 1. That number anchors a bracket that also sent the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox into their own division series after wild-card sweeps.

Why do the Brewers hold a 64% edge over the Padres?

ESPN's simulation puts Milwaukee ahead of San Diego despite a Padres team that scored at a torrid pace down the stretch. The two clubs tied for the second-most runs in baseball after the All-Star break, per ESPN, and the gap in the model comes down to sustained performance and ballpark.

"As well as the Padres hit over the second half of the season, they tied with the Brewers for the second-most runs scored after the All-Star break," ESPN's preview notes, while pointing to Milwaukee's status as baseball's best home team as a separate edge in the series.

San Diego enters off a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card round, a series in which 20-year-old catcher Jorge Salas became the youngest player to catch a playoff game, per ESPN.

How did the Yankees reach the ALDS against the Rays?

New York swept the Boston Red Sox out of the wild-card round, a result ESPN's Jorge Castillo described as a one-sided sweep built on homegrown talent. The win sends the Yankees into a division series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

What makes the White Sox-Guardians series notable for Chicago?

The White Sox advanced by winning a playoff series for the first time since 2005, ESPN reported, setting up a division series against Cleveland. The 21-year gap is the longest active series-win drought among the four American League clubs now moving on.

What is still unsettled on the bracket?

The fourth NLDS spot was not decided as of ESPN's Oct. 1 preview. The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves were set to play a deciding wild-card game Thursday night in Atlanta, with the winner filling out the National League side of the bracket.

What to watch as the division series open

• Whether Milwaukee's home-field advantage, cited as baseball's best regular-season home mark by ESPN, holds up against a Padres offense that matched the Brewers' post-All-Star-break run production.
• Whether the Yankees' wild-card sweep of Boston carries into a tougher Rays matchup.
• Whether the White Sox can build on their first series win since 2005 against Cleveland.
• The outcome of Thursday's Phillies-Braves decider, which sets the final NLDS field.

Glossary

Division Series: The best-of-five second round of the MLB playoffs, played after the single-elimination or multi-game wild-card round and before the League Championship Series.

Full matchup breakdowns, including player-by-player difference-maker picks for each series, are available in ESPN's division series preview.