Canberra — Canada's Migration Pullback Offers Lessons for Australia

Canada's annual population growth has slowed to just 0.5%, and its economy is "adjusting" rather than collapsing, according to The Guardian — a case now cited by both sides of Australia's fight over how many migrants the country should let in.

Labor and an ascendant One Nation have presented starkly different visions of what a migration program in the national interest looks like, the Guardian reported. Pauline Hanson, the One Nation leader, wants net overseas migration pushed into negative territory for three years. Tony Burke, the federal home affairs minister, says doing so would "trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy."

What Is One Nation Proposing in Australia?

Hanson announced a plan last month to cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years, targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants, according to the Guardian. To hit that figure, net overseas migration would need to turn negative for three straight years before settling at an ongoing cap of 130,000, the party says.

How Does That Compare With Labor's Target?

Labor's longer-term net overseas migration target is 225,000 a year, versus the most recent official estimate of 292,000 for the year to March, the Guardian reported. The gap between One Nation's proposed 130,000 ceiling, Labor's 225,000 goal, and the actual 292,000 figure is the arithmetic underpinning the entire political argument over how much reduction is already underway and how much more is needed.

What Does Canada's Experience Show?

Canada has not targeted a specific net overseas migration level, the Guardian noted. Instead, Ottawa adopted policies aimed at shrinking the share of temporary migrants in the overall population. With annual population growth down to 0.5%, the economy is described as "adjusting" — a word that leaves open whether the adjustment is painful, benign, or genuinely lifts per-capita living standards, which is the central claim at stake in Australia's debate.

What Are Both Sides Saying?

Burke argues Hanson's numbers would "trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy," the minister said, according to the Guardian. Hanson rejects that framing. "Australians have been in a per-capita recession for years," she wrote in a social media post quoted by the Guardian. "Their lives have been getting worse because of migration. Canada has shown living standards improve when migration is cut." She said "vested interest [sic] are warning Australia could face a technical recession if migration is cut."

What Happens Next?

Neither government has published modelling settling whether Canada's slowdown has lifted per-capita living standards or simply slowed overall growth, leaving the comparison open to competing interpretation in Canberra. The fight over net overseas migration targets — Labor's 225,000 goal, One Nation's proposed 130,000 cap, and the current 292,000 estimate — is likely to intensify as new migration figures are released, according to the Guardian's reporting.