Florida Poll Shows Republicans Leading Governor, Senate Races

Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 7 percentage points in Florida's governor's race, and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 10 points in the state's Senate race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll.

The survey also found Hispanic voters in the state moving away from President Donald Trump, even as the two Republican candidates for statewide office still lead that bloc.

How far ahead is Byron Donalds in the governor's race

Donalds, a congressman representing southwest Florida, polls at 48% to Jolly's 41%, according to NBC News. That 7-point margin sits just inside the poll's margin of error, NBC News reported, though Donalds holds the edge across most of the possible range. Donalds has had a substantial financial advantage in the race, according to the outlet.

What is Ashley Moody's lead over Angie Nixon

Moody, the Republican incumbent, polls at 50% to Nixon's 40%, a 10-point spread, per the poll. Nixon, who is aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, advanced to the general election after what NBC News described as a surprise primary victory over Democrat Alexander Vindman in August.

Why are Hispanic voters shifting away from Trump

The poll captured movement among Florida's Hispanic electorate, concentrated in South Florida and including large Cuban, Nicaraguan, Honduran and Colombian populations, according to NBC News. Trump carried Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by roughly 11 points in 2024, a reversal from 2020, when Joe Biden won the county by 7 points, NBC News reported. The new survey suggests that trend is now bending back toward Democrats at the presidential level even as Donalds and Moody retain leads among Hispanic voters.

How do Donalds and Moody fare with Hispanic voters specifically

Among Hispanic voters, Donalds leads Jolly 48% to 43%, and Moody leads Nixon 47% to 40%, according to the poll. Those margins are narrower than the candidates' overall leads, consistent with a bloc that is shifting even as it has not flipped.

What is Trump's approval rating in Florida right now

Trump's job performance rating is underwater in the poll, with 49% disapproving and 45% approving, NBC News reported. The results arrive amid what the outlet called broad Democratic optimism about the 2026 midterms, with public polling elsewhere showing Democrats competitive in some traditionally red states. The Florida numbers, NBC News wrote, suggest limits to that momentum in at least one major battleground.

Timeline: how Florida's Hispanic vote has moved since 2020

• 2020: Biden wins Miami-Dade County by 7 points, NBC News reported.
• 2024: Trump wins Miami-Dade by roughly 11 points, a reversal of the prior trend.
• August 2026: Nixon defeats Vindman in the Democratic Senate primary.
• October 2026: New poll shows Donalds up 7 points over Jolly and Moody up 10 over Nixon statewide, with Hispanic voters narrowing their support for Trump-aligned politics even as Republican statewide candidates hold leads in that bloc.

The poll was conducted by NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group, according to NBC News, which did not report a sample size or field dates in the published account.