65-MPH Isaias Set to Become 2026's First Atlantic Hurricane

Tropical Storm Isaias was packing sustained winds of 65 mph as of the latest National Hurricane Center update, just short of the 74 mph threshold for hurricane strength, according to WIRED. Forecasters expect the storm to cross a patch of abnormally warm Gulf water in the coming days, fuel that could push it to hurricane status — and potentially as high as Category 2, with winds near 110 mph — before landfall.

How strong is Tropical Storm Isaias right now?

At 65 mph, Isaias sits just below hurricane intensity. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track has the storm strengthening as it moves over warmer water, then weakening again shortly before it reaches shore because of the same upper-atmosphere winds that have suppressed storms all season, WIRED reported.

Where will Isaias make landfall?

The storm is forecast to come ashore somewhere between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has issued hurricane watches for the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastline and parts of the Florida Panhandle, with tropical storm watches extending into Louisiana, according to WIRED. Forecasters warn of rainfall totals up to 7 inches generally and as much as 10 inches in parts of the Panhandle, storm surge as high as 7 feet, and the possibility of tornadoes.

Why has the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season been so quiet?

A strong El Niño — described by meteorologists with informal labels like "super," "Godzilla" and "supersized," though WIRED notes those are not official designations — has altered winds high in the atmosphere in ways that tear apart developing storms. Record-high ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific this summer and fall drove the effect, and Saharan dust has further dried the air over one of the Atlantic's main storm-development zones.

The numbers show the gap: the 1991–2020 average, per National Hurricane Center data cited by WIRED, is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — in a typical season. This year has produced eight tropical storms and, with Isaias, one storm on the verge of becoming the season's first hurricane.

Could Isaias set a record for the latest first hurricane?

Isaias is close to tying, or possibly setting, the record for the latest date on which an Atlantic season's first hurricane has formed. That mark was set on October 8, 1905. WIRED reported one more National Hurricane Center update was scheduled for Wednesday, leaving open the possibility that Isaias narrowly misses the mark depending on timing.

What do "ACE" and "major hurricane" mean?

Two terms matter for understanding how this season is measured. A major hurricane is any storm that reaches Category 3 or greater, the threshold the National Hurricane Center and WIRED use when counting the most dangerous storms of a season. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a separate metric that factors in not just how many storms form and how strong they get, but how long each one persists — a way to capture a season's total destructive potential beyond a simple storm count.