What We Know About Trump's Plan to Lower Fuel Prices Before Midterms

Gasoline and diesel prices in the United States have more than doubled since February, when the US-Israel conflict with Iran began, and President Donald Trump is pointing to a new arrangement with Russia as the fix, according to the BBC. The announcement comes weeks before midterm elections in which affordability has become a central issue for voters.

What did Trump announce about Russian diesel?

On Friday, Trump said he had reached a deal with President Vladimir Putin for Russian diesel to be released "immediately" to U.S. and global markets, the BBC reported. He said the agreement covers more than 300,000 tonnes released right away, 500,000 tonnes in November, and a further 1 million tonnes "immediately thereafter," with an additional 3 million tonnes to follow "within a short period," depending on the condition of Russian refineries. Trump wrote that diesel prices "will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" and called lower prices for "our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers" his "Greatest Priority," according to the BBC.

What else has the administration done to cut fuel costs?

Earlier in the week, Trump announced a waiver on the use of red dye diesel at a campaign stop, a move the BBC said underscored how central gas prices have become to a midterm campaign dominated by affordability concerns.

Why are gasoline and diesel prices so high?

Global oil supplies have been restricted since the Middle East conflict effectively halted the normal flow of oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz for months, the BBC reported. Crude oil flows are nearly back to pre-war levels, but prices remain above $100 a barrel, with knock-on effects for diesel and gasoline. David Ruisard, pricing manager at commodities intelligence firm Argus, told the BBC the war between Russia and Ukraine has also squeezed supplies: "Our estimates are that your price increase from about $3 a gallon up to $6 a gallon [for diesel] is 60% connected to the Strait of Hormuz, 40% connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict."

Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told the BBC that higher energy prices are responsible for most of this year's uptick in inflation, which is pushing up interest rates. "The combined impact of higher rates and higher energy prices is squeezing household budgets and adding to firms' costs," he said.

Are prices already moving before the midterms?

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-tracking site GasBuddy, told the BBC there have been "modest declines recently for both gasoline and diesel," adding that the drop is "likely due to some of the manoeuvres that we've seen the Trump administration employ."

Why does this matter for the midterms?

Polls cited by the BBC show a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and the Iran war, both of which have contributed to high fuel costs. Voters have tied the issue to Trump and his party, the BBC reported, weighing down Republican candidates ahead of November. Whether the Russian diesel pledge and the red-dye waiver translate into pump-price relief before Election Day remains, per the BBC's reporting, an open question tied to how quickly Russian refineries can supply promised volumes.