Diesel Futures Jump Despite Trump-Putin Deal to Boost Supply

U.S. diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday to their highest level in weeks, a signal that pump prices are likely to climb further even after the Trump administration struck a deal meant to bring prices down, according to NBC News.

European diesel futures rose about 3.8% the same day, and gas futures there spiked to levels not seen all year, NBC News reported. The moves came days after President Donald Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to buy previously sanctioned Russian diesel reserves, which Trump said would add millions of metric tons of diesel to world supply.

How much have prices already risen?

The average nationwide diesel price is up 70% since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, NBC News reported. Unleaded gasoline has climbed more than 45% over the same stretch. Brent crude traded around $106 a barrel Tuesday and U.S. crude neared $95, with both benchmarks up roughly 70% since the start of the year, according to the outlet.

Why are traders skeptical the Russia deal will help?

Futures markets typically move ahead of retail prices, and Tuesday's jump suggested traders expect costs to keep rising despite the new Russian supply. "Absolutely stunning price spikes in wholesale diesel today," Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza wrote on X, adding that the "US retail diesel price record of $6.53/gal could be topped by the midterms," per NBC News. Kloza said wholesale diesel rose 18 cents a gallon on the Gulf Coast and East Coast, and 25 to 30 cents in Southern California, the Great Plains and the Great Lakes.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that "$6/gal diesel may be here to stay for now," and that "truckers and farmers" are unlikely to see relief soon, NBC News reported.

Who feels the increase first?

Diesel prices are climbing fastest in regions Trump and Republicans can least afford to anger before November's midterms, NBC News reported, with Southern California, the Great Plains and the Great Lakes seeing larger gallon increases than the coasts. Diesel costs flow directly into trucking and farm equipment expenses, which can move quickly into retail food and freight prices.

What was the Trump-Russia deal supposed to fix?

Trump's announcement framed the purchase of sanctioned Russian reserves as a direct fix for tight diesel supply. The administration has separately continued engagement tied to the broader Russia-Ukraine conflict, including intelligence sharing with Ukraine, according to HTT News. NBC News did not report a specific timetable for when Russian diesel volumes would reach U.S. markets.

What to watch

• Whether U.S. retail diesel breaks the $6.53-a-gallon record Kloza cited, per NBC News.
• Regional gallon increases in Southern California, the Great Plains and Great Lakes versus the Gulf and East coasts.
• Movement in Brent and U.S. crude benchmarks, both up about 70% year to date.
• Any confirmed delivery timeline for Russian diesel reserves under the Trump-Putin deal.

Glossary

• Futures: Contracts to buy or sell a commodity at a set price on a future date; price moves often precede retail changes.
• Brent crude: The global oil-price benchmark, distinct from U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude.
• Wholesale diesel: The price refiners and distributors charge before retail markup at the pump.