Lula Reverses Course, Backs Lowering Brazil's Criminal Age to 16

Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, now supports lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for crimes classified as "heinous," reversing a position his party has held for years, according to The Guardian. The announcement came in a Thursday night interview with TV Globo, roughly ten days before Brazil's presidential runoff.

What did Lula actually say?

Asked about his position during the TV Globo interview, Lula said: "My view, as a Brazilian citizen, is that for any and every heinous crime, I am in favour of lowering the age," according to the Guardian's report. When the reporter followed up by asking whether he meant lowering the age specifically to 16, Lula answered "yes." The exchange marked the first time the president has publicly endorsed a specific number, moving beyond the general statement that he favors change for serious offenses.

Why does this count as a reversal?

Lula and his party have historically opposed lowering the age of criminal responsibility, a position tied to Brazil's 1990 statute protecting minors and to broader arguments from his coalition that punitive measures do not address the roots of youth crime. The shift comes after a string of opinion polls, the most recent released this week, found that 80% of the population supports lowering the age, per the Guardian. The announcement also followed a Senate discussion of the proposal earlier Thursday, before Lula's interview aired.

What crimes would actually be affected?

Brazilian law's list of "heinous" crimes is broad. It includes murder and rape but also extends to offenses such as the falsification of medicines and drug trafficking, the Guardian reported. That last category carries particular weight: drug trafficking is the offense for which roughly a quarter of the 816,000 people currently serving prison sentences in Brazil were incarcerated, according to the same report. Any change to the age threshold would therefore touch one of the largest categories of Brazil's prison population, not just violent crime in the narrower sense.

How does this compare with the Bolsonaro proposal?

Lula's opponent in the runoff, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, have long pushed to lower the age of criminal responsibility further, to 14 rather than 16, the Guardian noted. Flávio Bolsonaro currently holds a narrow lead in polling after winning the first round, putting Lula in the position of trying to close a gap rather than defend a lead. Lula's 16-year-old threshold positions him closer to, but still short of, the Bolsonaro camp's long-standing 14-year proposal — a distinction likely to matter in the campaign's closing arguments to voters who rank public safety as a top concern.

What are critics of the change saying?

Human rights organizations and security researchers have criticized proposals to lower the age threshold for years, arguing the measures do little to reduce violence while pushing more teenagers into Brazil's overcrowded prison system, where overcrowding has been linked to deeper ties with organized crime, according to the Guardian's reporting. The Episcopal Conference was also noted as weighing in on the Senate discussion that preceded Lula's TV Globo remarks, though the Guardian's account does not detail the conference's specific position beyond its involvement in the debate.

By the numbers

• 80% — share of Brazilians who told pollsters this week they support lowering the age of criminal responsibility, per the Guardian.
• 816,000 — total people serving prison sentences in Brazil, about a quarter of them for drug trafficking, one of the offenses classified as "heinous" under the law Lula now wants applied to 16-year-olds.

What to watch

• Whether the Senate moves the heinous-crimes proposal forward before the runoff, and whether Lula's party backs a bill matching his stated position.
• How Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign responds to Lula adopting a version of a policy the senator has long championed at age 14.
• Any formal statement from human rights groups or the Episcopal Conference following Lula's TV Globo remarks.
• Movement in pre-runoff polling given that 80% of respondents already favored lowering the age before Lula's shift.

The runoff vote is just over a week away, and Lula's reversal lands squarely inside the final stretch of campaigning, when both camps are competing for voters who have told pollsters, by wide margins, that they want the law changed.