Milwaukee — Brewers, Rays Enter World Series as Sportsbook Long Shots

MILWAUKEE — The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays open the 2026 World Series this week as the sportsbook industry's biggest payout risk, a reversal from preseason forecasts that gave both clubs little chance of reaching the championship round, according to ESPN.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin, enters the series favored at -160 over Tampa Bay, Florida, which is priced at +140, ESPN reported. It is the first World Series matchup between the two franchises, and the first title for either club would be a first in club history.

How Did the Brewers and Rays Start the Season as Long Shots?

DraftKings had the Brewers at 35-1 to win the title at the start of the season — the 14th-best odds in the sport — while the Rays opened at 80-1, the 22nd-best mark among the 30 clubs, according to ESPN's reporting on DraftKings futures lines. Neither team was viewed by bettors as a contender for the pennant, let alone the World Series.

Why Does a Long-Shot Run Create Liability for Sportsbooks?

At high plus-money odds, fewer total bets are needed to generate large payout obligations than with a betting favorite, ESPN reported. Caesars Sportsbook told ESPN before the postseason began that Milwaukee had already become a liability as late-season bettors treated the Brewers as a contrarian pick to win it all. That exposure persisted through October as Milwaukee's playoff wins pushed the team closer to a title that would trigger futures payouts placed months earlier.

How Would a Rays Championship Compare Historically?

Should Tampa Bay win the series, it would match the 1991 Minnesota Twins for the longest odds at the start of a season for a team that went on to win the World Series, based on data from SportsOddsHistory.com cited by ESPN. The Rays reached the series by eliminating the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Championship Series, with Tampa Bay pitcher Freddy Peralta named ALCS MVP, per ESPN.

What Happened to the Favorites Bettors Expected?

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who held odds near +200 for most of the season, were eliminated by Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series, according to ESPN. Because the Dodgers were priced as a stronger favorite than either World Series participant, their elimination did not carry the same liability swing for sportsbooks that the Brewers' and Rays' runs have produced.

What to Watch as the Series Begins

• Whether in-series betting shifts further toward Milwaukee as the current favorite, adding to the Brewers' liability tag.
• Whether Tampa Bay's run matches or surpasses the 1991 Twins as the longest preseason odds for a champion, per SportsOddsHistory.com data cited by ESPN.
• How sportsbooks adjust in-game lines given existing futures exposure on both clubs.

Betting Terms in This Story

• Liability: The amount a sportsbook stands to pay out if a specific outcome occurs.
• Futures odds: Preseason or in-season betting lines on which team will win a championship.
• Plus-money odds: Odds expressed with a "+" sign, indicating an underdog price where a smaller bet can return a larger payout.

For full betting data and ESPN's reporting, see the originating story.