Vucic's Defeat Signals Slow Shift in Serbia's Foreign Policy

Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election on Sunday, ending 14 years of rule by his Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, according to Al Jazeera. The vote went to the opposition Student List, setting up a transition that will unfold alongside presidential elections scheduled for December.

The question now circulating among diplomats and regional governments is whether Belgrade will turn toward the West. Analysts cited by Al Jazeera caution that any such shift will not come quickly, if it comes at all in the near term, because the incoming government first has to confront problems closer to home.

Why won't Belgrade pivot toward the West right away?

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, told Al Jazeera that foreign policy questions "will not be on the agenda immediately." He said the new authorities must first address a system that has "captured all democratic institutions," including the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector. "Tidying up at home" will take priority over "solving problems with the neighbours," Popov said.

What is the state of Serbia's regional relationships?

Vucic's government leaves behind strained ties with several neighbors. Popov said relations with Croatia are "not frozen" but are not what they "should ... be between neighbours," and are frequently marked by sharp rhetoric. During recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a "colour revolution." Popov added that "relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved."

Why is Croatia described as the thorniest case?

Popov pointed to the clash between SNS and Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union, or HDZ, a party from a similar nationalist-populist tradition, as the source of friction. "Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate," he said, describing a political system that "functioned on the production of internal and external enemies."

Where do Belgrade and Zagreb actually agree?

Beneath the public hostility, Popov said, there has been a quiet convergence between the two capitals on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgrade has backed Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik, while Zagreb has favored a third entity within Bosnia's structure — competing approaches that nonetheless reflect shared interest in reshaping the country's postwar settlement.

What is the timeline for Serbia's political transition?

• Sunday, Oct. 26, 2026: Vucic concedes after the Student List wins the parliamentary election.
• December 2026: Serbia holds presidential elections, the next test of whether the opposition's momentum holds.
• Near term: Analysts expect the new government to focus on judiciary, police, prosecution and media overhauls before addressing relations with Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo.

Glossary

• SNS: The Serbian Progressive Party, Vucic's party, in power for 14 years before Sunday's defeat.
• Republika Srpska: The Serb-majority entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, led by Milorad Dodik and backed by Belgrade.
• Colour revolution: A term Vucic used to accuse Zagreb of organizing recent mass protests in Serbia.

For now, the Western Balkans' diplomatic map remains unchanged even as Belgrade's internal politics are remade, according to Al Jazeera's reporting.

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