Lula's Win Complicates Trump's Latin America Strategy

Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term, and President Donald Trump's response split the difference: praise for Lula personally alongside a claim the vote was "rigged," according to BBC News. "I like Lula, we get along well," Trump said, while also calling the election "terrible" and "rigged," the BBC reported. Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court found no evidence of irregularities, the outlet noted, even as Lula's rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, has refused to recognize the result.

Why did Trump impose tariffs on Brazil?

Trump placed punitive tariffs on Brazil as what the BBC described as a political response to the coup trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, whom Trump called a victim of a "witch-hunt." A year earlier, Lula told the BBC he had "no relationship" with Trump and had never spoken to him by phone. Lula campaigned against the tariffs directly, wearing a cap reading "Brazil belongs to Brazilians" and accusing the Bolsonaro family of being unpatriotic for lobbying Washington on the issue, the BBC reported. His approval ratings rose. The US later reduced the tariffs, though the BBC reported they have since risen again.

How has the US-Brazil relationship shifted since then?

Relations warmed enough that the two leaders spoke at the United Nations and later met in the Oval Office, where Trump called the talks "very good" and Lula said he left "very satisfied," per the BBC. Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, told the BBC that Trump had expected Brazil to be the "10th and biggest prize" in the region after Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of voting.

What is the "Donroe Doctrine"?

The BBC described the Donroe Doctrine as Trump's own term for a strategy to use ideologically aligned Latin American governments to assert US influence across the Western Hemisphere. Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru have each elected presidents closely aligned with the Trump administration, the BBC reported, and Flávio Bolsonaro was expected to bring Brazil into a related coalition the outlet called the "Shield of Americas."

What happens next for Trump and Lula?

Lula's win leaves that coalition without its largest intended member, the BBC noted, even as Trump and Lula have found a working rapport. Flávio Bolsonaro's refusal to concede, despite the court's finding, leaves an open domestic question in Brazil that could again draw Washington's attention.

What to watch

• Whether US tariffs on Brazilian goods rise further or ease again
• Flávio Bolsonaro's next legal and political moves after refusing to recognize the result
• Any further Trump-Lula contact following their Oval Office meeting
• Whether other Trump-aligned Latin American governments press Brazil on regional policy

Glossary

Donroe Doctrine — Trump's own term, cited by the BBC, for a strategy of leaning on aligned Latin American governments to extend US influence in the hemisphere.

Shield of Americas — A coalition the BBC reported Flávio Bolsonaro was expected to join had he won, tied to the Donroe Doctrine strategy.