What We Know About Israel's Election Results So Far

Israelis turned out in numbers described by The New York Times as the largest in a generation on Tuesday, and by the time exit polls closed, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his chief rival could claim a parliamentary majority, according to The New York Times's live coverage. What followed past midnight was two men speaking to supporters as though each had already won.

The exit polls suggested a bloc of opposition parties was roughly even with Mr. Netanyahu's coalition, the Times reported. That rough parity set up a vote count expected to take days, followed by what could be a longer scramble to stitch together 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Who are the two men claiming victory?

Mr. Netanyahu, who has led what the Times described as the most far-right government in Israeli history, addressed his supporters hours after midnight. He invoked his relationship with President Trump and repeated pre-election talking points about removing the threat of Iran, according to the Times. He told the crowd it was clear Likud had emerged as the largest single party, and mocked months of pre-election polling that had shown his party trailing.

Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war and who now leads a bloc of opposition parties, spoke first. "Tonight we got the answer: The public wants change," he told supporters, striking what the Times called a tone of triumph mixed with defiance toward the prime minister.

Why is the outcome still unclear?

Exit polls in Israel have what the Times called a spotty history of accuracy, particularly in tight races, and this one is tight by any measure. Vote counting was expected to continue for days before a clearer seat count emerges.

The deeper complication is arithmetic. The exit polls, if accurate, indicate that neither Mr. Netanyahu's bloc nor Mr. Eisenkot's can reach a majority without the support of two Arab parties projected to win as many as 17 or 18 seats combined, the Times reported. Mr. Netanyahu has effectively ruled out governing with those parties. Mr. Eisenkot and his coalition partners have balked at the idea as well, according to the Times's reporting on the key players, which named Mansour Abbas as leader of the Arab Islamist party in that bloc.

Could the rivals form a unity government instead?

Analysts cited by the Times were already weighing whether Mr. Netanyahu could join forces with Mr. Eisenkot or other opposition figures rather than rely on Arab parties neither side wants as formal coalition partners. A right-wing former defense minister, Avigdor Liberman, was also listed among the key players who could factor into any such arrangement.

The obstacles are not procedural so much as personal. Mr. Eisenkot has called Mr. Netanyahu unfit to lead Israel, and the Times reported that his voters "deeply despise" the prime minister. Any unity government would also require the two men to agree on who serves as prime minister, and Mr. Netanyahu is described as unlikely to cede that post.

What happens to the vote count now?

Final tallies were still being processed as of Wednesday morning in Israel, the Times reported, with a government-formation process to follow once a seat count is certified. A later report from HTT News, tracking the count as it progressed, found Mr. Netanyahu's coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority, underscoring how close the race remained even after exit-poll night.

What to watch in the coming days

• Whether the official count confirms the exit-poll split or shifts seats enough to hand either bloc a clear 61-seat majority.
• Whether Mr. Netanyahu or Mr. Eisenkot opens talks with the Arab-led parties despite public statements ruling that out.
• Any movement toward unity-government talks, and who each side proposes as prime minister if those talks start.
• Statements from Avigdor Liberman and Mansour Abbas, whose parties could decide which bloc, if either, reaches a majority.

Glossary: key terms in this story

• Bloc — A grouping of parties that have agreed, or are expected, to vote together for a prime ministerial candidate and government.
• Exit poll — A survey of voters taken as they leave polling stations, used to project results before official counting is complete; the Times noted Israel's exit polls have a history of inaccuracy in close races.
• Knesset — Israel's 120-seat parliament; a governing coalition needs the support of 61 members.
• Unity government — A coalition that includes rival parties or blocs, typically formed when no single bloc can reach a majority alone.