What We Know About Papua New Guinea's El Niño Drought Crisis

As many as 8 million people in Papua New Guinea are affected by food shortages, water scarcity and electricity disruptions tied to an historic El Niño event, according to reporting by The Guardian published Oct. 29, 2026 (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026). Here is what is documented so far.

How many people are affected?

The Guardian's count of up to 8 million people spans food insecurity, water shortages, electricity scarcity and schooling disruption across Papua New Guinea, a country whose population is concentrated in rural highland and coastal communities (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026). The outlet attributes the figure to its own reporting rather than a single government or UN tally, and no separate agency breakdown of the number by region or sector was cited in the story.

What is driving the drought?

The Guardian describes the event as an "historic" El Niño that is "gaining strength in the tropical Pacific," with forecasts cited in the report suggesting it will be among the strongest on record (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026). The outlet reports that rivers and creeks have dried up in affected areas and that family food gardens — described as a primary source of both food and income for many households — have shriveled as a direct result.

How is the drought disrupting daily life?

Schools and health facilities are closing early in some areas because they lack sufficient water to operate, according to residents and community leaders quoted by The Guardian (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026). In PNG's Eastern Highlands province, the outlet documents a failed tomato crop and a plantain field lost to an unplanned fire, images that accompany reporting from CARE PNG. Emilly Meren, humanitarian projects manager at CARE International in PNG, told the Guardian that families in rural highland areas are now rationing food to one meal a day.

"They have to travel three to four hours to source water and food and are exposed to a heightened risk of harassment. We are hearing stories of transactional sex happening in the community — exchanging sex for money or for food." — Emilly Meren, CARE International PNG (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026)

Who is most at risk?

Meren told the Guardian that women and girls face disproportionate burdens: they are "expected to do more to support their families" during the shortages yet are "the last to eat because they have to serve others first." The multi-hour trips required to find water and food, per her account, raise exposure to harassment, and CARE's reporting to the Guardian describes transactional sex emerging as a coping mechanism in affected communities.

Is there a coordinated government response?

A coalition described by the Guardian as including churches, trade unions and business groups has labeled the situation a "national crisis" (The Guardian, Oct. 29, 2026). That same coalition said there appears to be "no coordinated plan to protect vulnerable communities from the worsening impacts of El Niño," according to the outlet's reporting. The story does not cite a specific government agency response or funding commitment addressing the shortages described by residents and CARE staff.

For the full reporting, including on-the-ground photographs from PNG's Eastern Highlands, see The Guardian's original story.