Michigan Senate Poll: El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 11 Points

Eleven percentage points separate Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in the final New York Times/Siena College poll of Michigan's US Senate race, a margin outside the survey's error range, according to The Guardian's live coverage of the eve of the 2026 midterm elections.

The poll was conducted before Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens announced she would back Rogers, a Republican, in a contest both parties regard as pivotal to control of the Senate.

What did Trump say at the Reflecting Pool?

In Washington, DC, United States, President Donald Trump appeared near the Reflecting Pool by the Lincoln Memorial on Monday, holding up photographs and speaking for close to 20 minutes about construction projects in the capital, according to the Guardian's live blog. Reporters on the scene noted that Trump had not made a substantial reference to the midterm elections well into his remarks, even as voters prepared to go to the polls the next day.

What does the final Michigan Senate poll show?

The Times/Siena survey put El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 11 points in Michigan, United States, a lead the paper described as outside the margin of error. The poll's fieldwork predated Stevens' endorsement announcement, meaning the figures do not reflect any shift tied to her decision.

Why did Haley Stevens endorse Mike Rogers?

Stevens, a Democratic member of Congress, announced an 11th-hour endorsement of Rogers rather than her own party's nominee. Asked about the decision, Stevens said, "This is just a weight off my shoulders," according to the Guardian's live coverage. Stevens separately rejected characterizations that she had been "forced" into the endorsement.

"This is just a weight off my shoulders." — Haley Stevens

How have Democrats responded to the Stevens endorsement?

Party figures condemned the move. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the endorsement "horrific" and said it "dangerously betrays" Michigan, the Guardian reported. El-Sayed, for his part, told reporters, "I actually don't think about Haley Stevens," according to the live blog, and his campaign said it logged a record single-day fundraising total in the hours after Stevens' announcement. The Guardian's live blog did not report a specific dollar figure for that total.

What happens next in the race?

The Senate seat is one Democrats are seeking to retain as part of a broader push for chamber control, the Guardian noted. Separately, the Trump administration has appealed a California ballot case to the US supreme court, according to the live blog, though the filing was not detailed as directly tied to the Michigan contest. With polls opening Tuesday, the final Times/Siena numbers and the Stevens endorsement give Michigan voters two competing signals heading into the count — a double-digit Democratic lead in pre-endorsement polling, and a last-minute cross-party break that Democratic leaders have called a betrayal of the party's effort to hold the seat.

mindfulAI Keyboard — An iPhone keyboard that rewrites a draft in a tone you pick. Four free AI actions a day.