Climate Risk Is Reshaping the American Dream of Homeownership

Owning a home is supposed to build wealth. For a growing number of American buyers, climate disasters are turning that bet into a liability, according to reporting published by WIRED in collaboration with Grist's Climate Desk.

What happened when Sierra Isley tried to buy a house in Asheville?

Sierra Isley, 26, and her girlfriend Jamie put down a deposit on a three-bedroom brick house in Asheville, North Carolina, two years ago, moving from Philadelphia to chase what Isley called "that big dream that everybody has as a kid," she told WIRED/Grist. At closing, lawyers found a large lien on the property, and the couple walked away from the deal to rent an apartment instead.

One month later, the remnants of Hurricane Helene turned Asheville into a disaster zone. Their rental basement flooded, but neighbors in homes nearby lost far more, according to the report.

How much could climate risk cost U.S. homeowners?

The risk is not limited to one storm or one city. The real-estate risk firm First Street, in a report titled "Property Prices in Peril," projected that climate risks could strip nearly $1.5 trillion from American home values by 2055. Sociologist Rebecca Elliott, cited in the report, wrote that for some owners "the American dream of homeownership may become a nightmare."

How many Americans worry climate change will block the American Dream?

Polling conducted for Grist by the think tank Data for Progress found that 58 percent of likely U.S. voters believe climate change will hinder their ability to achieve the American Dream over the next 20 years. That figure includes 42 percent of Republicans, according to the survey. The report ties that concern, chiefly over rising costs of living, to Democratic gains in elections held last Tuesday.

By the numbers

• $1.5 trillion — projected drop in U.S. home values tied to climate risk by 2055, per First Street's "Property Prices in Peril" report.
• 58% — share of likely U.S. voters who say climate change will hurt their shot at the American Dream over the next 20 years, per Data for Progress polling for Grist.
• 42% — share of Republican voters who share that concern, according to the same poll.

Why are fossil fuel companies part of this debate?

For roughly a century, oil and gas companies have run campaigns linking their products to American comfort and prosperity, a narrative repeatedly used by politicians and industry executives to push back against climate regulation, the WIRED/Grist report states. The Trump administration has frequently argued that efforts to curb fossil-fuel production would undermine the American way of life, according to the report. Critics counter that the storms, floods and fires driving up insurance costs and home-value losses are themselves tied to the burning of those same fuels. Neither side's framing is resolved by the data in the report; both arguments are presented there as part of the ongoing fight over climate policy.

What should homebuyers watch for now?

The report offers no new federal rule or deadline. Instead, it documents a shift already underway: buyers running title and risk checks that used to be afterthoughts, insurers repricing coverage in storm-prone regions, and would-be owners like Isley and her girlfriend recalculating whether a deposit on a house is a safe bet or a gamble on infrastructure, insurance markets and weather that are all in flux.

For the Asheville couple, a lien complication they didn't ask for ended up protecting them from a storm they didn't see coming. Not every buyer will get that kind of accidental out. First Street's trillion-dollar projection and the Data for Progress polling numbers both point to the same underlying question for anyone weighing a purchase in a flood plain, a fire corridor or a coastal county: whether the house still functions as the wealth-building asset it was sold as, or whether, as Elliott put it, it has become something closer to a trap.

The full WIRED/Grist report, including additional polling detail and the First Street analysis, is available at wired.com.